A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
